Discussicon Long Term Forecast and Plan or the City of Davis 2016-2017  

Welcome to this Civenergy discussion of the future of the City of Davis! This discussion is here to help you understand the choices the City of Davis faces as it provides services to its citizens into the future.  You can also share your thoughts about the City's choices.    This discussion is designed to help you make better decisions about the City’s future.

In 2016 in response to citizen feedback and recommendations from the Finance and Budget Commission, City Staff has included a 20-year forecast of the City’s overall fiscal condition as part of the annual budget approval process. This comprehensive forecast looks at all future needs, including employee retirement expenses and maintenance/replacement of the City’s infrastructure (roads, buildings, parks, pools, etc.).

This discussion includes an interactive model containing all the information from the City’s forecast in, which allows each citizen to both understand the official City forecast, and also to explore scenarios different from the one the City has developed by varying individual assumptions in the interactive model. For a brief introduction to the model click HERE

Right now, there are more forecasted expenses than there are forecasted revenues (revenues are mostly from taxes). More expenses than revenues means tough choices between competing needs, and the interactive forecasting model gives citizens/taxpayers a way to get a clear understanding of the tradeoffs associated with the City’s decision and service options. This Civenergy discussion thread provides a forum for citizens/taxpayers to share their thoughts about those tradeoffs.

This discussion and interactive model were developed by the Project Toto team: Jeff Miller, Matt Williams and Bob Fung. The team started as the Long-Range Forecast of City Needs and Revenues subcommittee of the Finance and Budget Commission for the City of Davis, and has transitioned its work to a nonprofit, nonpartisan public service organization.  


Issues
Summary of Long Term Forecast and Plan​ The Long Term Forecast and Plan that the City of Davis has up to the 2016-2017 year been a 10 year plan and focussed primarily on financial measures. As of the 2017-2018 fiscal year, the forecast and plan will look forward 20 years and include service measures (e.g., predicted road quality) as well as financial measures (e.g., general fund reserve).
over 1 year ago1 viewpoint
Bicycle Path Plan ​The Bicycle Path Plan is how much money the City plans on putting to Bicycle path maintenance per year. The scenarios come from the Pavement Management Program Update Report dated April 2016.
over 1 year ago0 viewpoints
Cost of Living Adjustment for Employees (COLAs) Employee costs make up the majority of costs for the City of Davis. ​Cost of Living Adjustment for Employees (COLAs) is a percentage annual increase per year that would keep employee compensation up to date with inflation. The possible range of COLAs range from 0% to 3%
over 1 year ago1 viewpoint
Project Toto Model ​The Long Term Forecasting Model that is associated with this discussion is based on the Excel spreadsheet associated with the official City of Davis 2016-2017 forecast. The Model generalizes the spreadsheet.
over 1 year ago0 viewpoints
CalPERS Rate of Return ​How much the City of Davis contributes to employee pensions into the future depends significantly on how much CalPERS can earn on the City's portfolio.
over 1 year ago0 viewpoints
Retiree Health Portfolio Investment Return (CERBT Rate of Return) The City of Davis has been investing money in the California Employers' Retiree Benefit Trust (CERBT) since 2009 to address the unfunded liability in retiree healthcare. The City of Davis has invested in CERBT Strategy 1. T
over 1 year ago1 viewpoint
Pavement Plan ​The pavement plan is how much money the City plans to put into the roads from the general fund.
over 1 year ago1 viewpoint

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